The Future of New and Genetically Modified Oil Crops

Oil crops are one of the most valuable traded agricultural commodities and are probably worth over $100 billion/yr. The current volume of traded vegetable oils is over 70 Mt per year and is predicted to increased to over 100 Mt per year by the year 2010 (Murphy 1996). This is probably a considerable underestimate of the total volume of oil production since, particularly in developing countries, most vegetable oils are consumed locally, rather than entering into trading networks. Despite the large volume of globally traded vegetable oil, only four major crops, soybean, oil palm, rapeseed, and sunflower contribute about 75% of this production. The domination of the oilseed market by the “big four” oil crops is set to continue for the foreseeable future. Indeed, the establishment of new plantations in South East Asia is predicted to double oil palm production in the next 15 years, making it, by then, the most important source of vegetable oils in the world. The vast majority of vegetable oils are currently used for edible commodities, such as margarines, cooking oils, and processed foods. Only about 15% of production goes towards the manufacture of oleochemicals, i.e. industrial products derived from oil crops. Over the next few decades two important factors will contribute to an expansion in the markets for both edible and industrial oil crops. Firstly, according to current demographic trends, the global human population will at least double before stabilizing at some time in the mid 21st century. This, coupled with rising levels of affluence in many developing countries, will lead to increased demands for both raw and refined edible oil products. Secondly, it is well known that global hydrocarbon reserves are a non-renewable resource. The most recent estimates from six different national and international agencies predict that world oil production from petroleum reserves will peak at some time between the years 2000 and 2020, and will decline thereafter (Kerr 1998). In addition to being an important source of energy, e.g. electricity generation and vehicle fuel, petroleum is also the source of a huge range of petrochemicals. These petrochemicals are the raw materials for products such as plastics, textiles, lubricants, paints, varnishes. Once non-renewable hydrocarbon resources such as petroleum and coal are exhausted, there will be no other source of such products, other than oleochemicals derived from oil crops. The challenge for researchers in the coming years will be to produce oil crops with higher yields to satisfy increased demands and also to increase the spectrum of useful products, whether for edible or industrial use, that can be derived from these crops. To date, the vast majority of research and development activities has focused on improving existing crops and most notably the “big four” oil crops as above. More recently, there has been considerable interest in using recombinant DNA technology to transfer genes from other oilproducing species into the major oil crops, in order to extend the range of fatty acids produced by such crops. Until now, relatively little effort has gone into the domestication of completely new oil-producing species. Partly, this has been due to the considerable agronomic problems faced in adapting a wild or semi-wild species for large scale agricultural production. Nevertheless, recent advances in plant science, which have been considerably assisted by technical developments related to the biotechnology industry, now make it a realistic option to consider domestication as an alternative to transgenic technology, in order to produce novel oils for future generations (Murphy 1998).